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“Territorial Consolidation and Third-Party Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment” by Daina Chiba and William Reed

February 16, 2022 @ 9:00 am 10:00 am JST

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Author: Daina Chiba (University of Macau) and William Reed (University of Maryland)

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between peaceful resolution of territorial disputes and the risk of conflict with third party states in subsequent years. We assess the causal effect of territorial gains on future conflict by exploiting the direction of verdicts given by an international court in territorial dispute cases as a natural experiment. The empirical results are remarkably strong and illustrate third party conflict is an important and under theorized consequence of peaceful consolidation of state borders.

Discussants: Hein Goemans (Rochester), Sara Mitchell (Iowa), and Krista E. Wiegand (University of Tennessee).

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